A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
