Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
